We are a firm focused on recognizing and unravelling complexity in favor of simplicity. We analyze the tenets of success and outcomes and identify ways in which human behavior helps drive, or hinder, adoption and overall success.
A fundamental belief that we hold is that complex and complicated are two different concepts. Most executives bring the same set of skills to the table when dealing with both types, not understanding that they require different approaches.
Overall success and adoption of a new process, idea, or technology depends on your behavioral approach to solving the problem. So let’s sort this out once and for all.
Complicated is defined as ‘the state or quality of being intricate or involving a lot of different parts in a way that is difficult to understand.’
Complicated problems can be hard to solve, but they are addressable with rules, recipes, and algorithms. They also can be resolved with systems and processes, like the hierarchical structures that most companies use to manage work, employees, and outcomes.
Complicated is relatively intuitive and follows most normal scientific rules. Whilst experience helps in resolving complicated problems, logic, a process orientation, and an ability to research a topic are mostly what is required.
Complex, however, is defined as something ‘consisting of many different and connected parts and not easy to analyze or understand; complicated or intricate.’
Complex problems involve too many unknowns and too many interrelated factors to reduce to rules and processes. A technological disruption like blockchain is a complex problem. A competitor with an innovative business model, an Uber or an Airbnb, is a complex problem. There’s no single strategy that will tell you how to respond predictably everytime a new competitor enters your market.
Complex issues are more difficult to diagnose and harder to understand. There is no apparent reason for a complex issue, they result in different outcomes, and they don’t follow any recognizable rules or scientific basis. With individual characteristics of the problem interacting in unpredictable ways, solving a complex issue is demanding.
Most of us use the two terms interchangeably and without realizing that they are, in fact, quite different.
By way of example, consider the flight of Apollo 13 in April of 1970. Flying to the moon and back is a complicated issue, but it isn’t complex. The objective can be broken down into its relevant component parts and each solved based on logic, calculations, and rules of nature. Space flight is repeatable and, for the most part, predictable.
The accident, that occurred two days into the flight, which involved the failure of an oxygen tank in the service module, was a complex issue. Faced with insufficient oxygen for the remainder of the mission, the lunar landing was aborted and the crew and mission control began to work on procedures to bring the crew home alive.
All of a sudden NASA had to switch from a complicated problem to a complex problem. The data they were receiving about the issue and possible implications were unpredictable and variable. There was no clear path to safely make the return journey to earth. They had enough oxygen for two people for 45 hours when they needed oxygen for three people for four days. Cooperation between ground and crew, innovative problem solving and the trust between astronauts, operations, engineers, and designers were just some of the reasons attributed to the successful reentry and splash down in the Indian Ocean.
Most of us are accustomed to solving complicated issues. Grade school, College, and Graduate School all prepare us for primarily solving complicated issues in the workplace. When we arrived, there were plenty of problems for us to tackle. But during our lives and careers, these complicated issues have morphed into complex ones.
Today, leaders and future leaders have to worry about both running the business and reinventing it at the same time. Change approaches our organizations at a frightening pace and, as it gets closer, it brings with it new expectations, experiences, and assumptions. There is no indication that in the next decade or so that this change will slow down. If anything, it will become broader, deeper, and faster. It’s not going away.
| Attribute | Attribute | Complex |
|---|---|---|
| Context | Recognizable, break/fix, Inside out | No clues, broader, behavioral, outside in |
| Relationship | Linear cause and effect relationship | Multiple unrelated inputs and disproportionate outcomes |
| Predictability | Predictable, logical, and repeatable | Unpredictable and variable |
| Control | Easy to diagnose and control | Manage and iterate |
| Ambiguity | Straight forward | High degree of ambiguity |
| Approach | Learn. Decide. Act.Experience and judgement | Act. Decide. Learn.Diverse team and experimental |
| Techniques | Process engineering, segmentation, root cause analysis, Right to left thinking | Scenario planning, what if analysis, pattern recognition, multidiscipline, hypothesis driven |
| Skills | Process orientated, Analytical, Technical, Functional, Project Management, Common sense | Adaptability, Collaboration, Critical thinking, Empathy, Innovative, Sensing, High EQ |
Learning to unravel complex issues requires a different set of skills and the ability to ‘switch’ between two different types of problems. Complexity tends to be holistic in nature, it may involve different departments, business units or even business entities. The ability to engage, collaborate, and co-create is of paramount importance. Complex isn’t about getting better at something, it’s about changing the way you achieve something.
Spending time determining the right answer to a complex problem is unlikely to be a winning strategy. In dealing with complicated issues, there is often a high degree of alignment to the solution and the solution has a high degree of certainty or predictability. Complex is the opposite. Complex problems may have more than one answer and multiple ways of getting there.
When thinking about preparing your organization for the complex challenges ahead consider the following:
- Recognize and understand the difference between complexity and complex problems
- Develop skills to support both types; either individuals or teams
- Emphasize soft skills – Empathy, Listening, Communicating
- Create a diverse workforce with different backgrounds and experiences
- Provide guidance but don’t constrain
- Begin to unravel existing complexity in your organization
- Find opportunities for your team to practice
- Put in place a sensing and scenario planning group
- Launch experiments and learn
No doubt the business and commercial environment is going to substantially change over the next decade. With that comes opportunity. Standing still while the global business environment changes around you carries more risk than grasping the opportunities. Taking small steps, building capability to unravel complex issues and learning as you go will help you build competence, confidence, and ability so that when you need to you are already prepared to take action.
We’d love to hear from you.
Do you approach complicated and complex issues differently? How are you preparing for the future? We’d love for you to share your reflections.